Market Valuation Alerts

Buffett Indicator Alerts — Market Cap to GDP Ratio Notifications

Get alerted when the Buffett Indicator — the ratio of total US stock market cap to GDP — crosses into overvalued or undervalued territory. Warren Buffett's favourite macro valuation gauge, monitored automatically.

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90-Day Alert Overview

US Fear & Greed Index vs. S&P 500

Fear & Greed Index
S&P 500
Example threshold (40)
Alert markers (below 40)
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What is the Buffett Indicator?

Warren Buffett's favourite market valuation gauge

The Buffett Indicator divides the total market capitalisation of all US-listed stocks (commonly proxied by the Wilshire 5000) by US GDP. Warren Buffett described it as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in a 2001 Fortune article. When the ratio is high, stocks are expensive relative to the underlying economy; when it is low, they are cheap.

Unlike the P/E ratio, which captures a single company or index, the Buffett Indicator reflects the aggregate valuation of the entire US equity market against the real productive output of the economy. It moves slowly but powerfully — rising for years during bull markets and collapsing sharply during corrections, making it ideal for long-term macro alerts.

Below 75%
Undervalued
Market cap is well below GDP — historically a rare buying opportunity for long-term investors
75% – 100%
Fair Value
Stocks are roughly in line with economic output — a neutral valuation environment
100% – 130%
Moderately Overvalued
Market cap exceeds GDP — valuations are elevated but not at historic extremes
Above 150%
Significantly Overvalued
Market cap far exceeds GDP — the ratio is at or near historic peaks, signalling elevated systemic risk

How it works

From macro data to your inbox after the next evaluation

1
Set your threshold
Choose a Buffett Indicator level that matters to you — e.g. "alert me when it crosses 150%" or "alert me when it drops below 90%".
2
Optionally combine with other signals
Add AND / OR conditions using the Fear & Greed Index, RSI, MACD, or any other supported indicator for higher-confidence macro alerts.
3
Choose your notification channel
Receive alerts via email, SMS, or browser push notification — whichever works best for your workflow.
4
Get alerted automatically
FearAlert evaluates your rules hourly and sends your alert after the Buffett Indicator crosses your threshold.

Example alerts

Popular Buffett Indicator alert configurations

BIOvervaluation warning
Buffett Indicator above 150%
Alert when the market cap / GDP ratio reaches historically dangerous levels — a signal to review position sizing and risk exposure.
BIMacro top confirmation
Buffett Indicator above 140%
High valuations confirmed by extreme greed — both the macro environment and investor sentiment are flashing caution.
Combined with: Fear & Greed Index above 75
BIUndervaluation opportunity
Buffett Indicator below 80%
Market cap has fallen well below GDP — a rare macro signal that stocks are cheap relative to the real economy.
BICrash signal — multi-confirmation
Buffett Indicator above 130%
Extreme valuations coincide with fear and technical weakness — a macro, sentiment, and technical triple-signal.
Combined with: Fear & Greed Index below 25 AND RSI (SPY, 14) below 35

FAQ

Buffett Indicator alerts — common questions

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Also explore: Fear & Greed Index Alerts  ·  SPY Alerts  ·  RSI Alerts